Beacon, the AI supply chain workspace, has today released new analysis of 27,613 ocean freight shipments spanning 2024 and 2025, revealing a maritime network under sustained and intensifying pressure.
The data shows a sharp deterioration in schedule reliability, with on-time delivery rates, defined as arrivals within 12 hours of the estimated time of arrival, falling year-on-year from 36% to 13.9%. At the same time, the proportion of shipments arriving three or more days late rose from 18.1% to 47.4%, underscoring the growing challenge faced by global supply chains.
For supply chain professionals operating just-in-time inventory models, this decline represents a fundamental shift in risk. What was once a manageable level of variability increasingly became the difference between meeting customer commitments and scrambling for alternative supply options.
Steady decline in ETAs
Quarter-by-quarter analysis shows that ocean freight ETA reliability eroded throughout 2025. In the first quarter of 2024, 45.2% of shipments arrived on time, a figure that dropped to 12.5% in the first quarter of 2025. The second quarter followed the same pattern, with on-time performance declining from 37.3% in 2024 to 11.7% in 2025. The third quarter fell from 37.7% to 14.7%, while the fourth quarter, traditionally affected by peak season congestion, saw on-time rates decrease from 30% to 16.9%. This consistency across all quarters suggests a sustained shift in operational capacity rather than a temporary shock.
Within this broader trend, the period from February through April 2025 stands out as particularly severe. February recorded an on-time rate of just 6.7%, with 63.9% of shipments arriving three or more days late. March followed with 7.4% on-time performance and 63.2% of shipments classified as very late, while April saw on-time arrivals fall further to 6%, alongside 61.4% very late shipments. Across these three months, approximately 93% of shipments failed to arrive within the 12-hour on-time window.
Commenting on the findings, Fraser Robinson, CEO and co-founder at Beacon, said: “When supply chain leaders began planning their 2025 shipments, most were working with assumptions built on 2024 performance data. By mid-year, those assumptions had become a liability. What’s clear from the data is that 2025 represented a significant departure from 2024 norms. Whether this represents a temporary disruption or a new baseline remains to be seen.”
Several structural factors are likely to have contributed to the decline observed in 2025. Red Sea disruptions forced widespread rerouting of Asia-Europe traffic, adding sailing days and triggering cascading schedule impacts across networks. Port congestion is evident in the concentration of delays at certain destinations, particularly UK ports and Scandinavian terminals. In addition, weather patterns in early 2025 may help explain the pronounced February-to-April trough.
Robinson added: “As supply chain professionals look ahead to planning for 2026, the analysis suggests that models based on 2025 realities, rather than 2024 expectations, will provide a more resilient foundation. Visibility and real-time insights will continue to be key.”
The analysis also reveals a critical gap in supply chain infrastructure - many organisations lack independent data to assess carrier and forwarder performance objectively. Without systematic tracking across their entire shipment portfolio, supply chain teams cannot identify reliability patterns, benchmark providers, or hold carriers accountable for ETA accuracy. Instead, they rely on anecdotal experience and provider-supplied performance metrics.